The biggest threat to Ricky Carmichael in tonight's Supercross at Qualcomm Stadium probably isn't any of the other 19 riders in the 250cc main event.
It could be the weather.
Rain or shine, the 22nd San Diego Supercross starts at 7.
Under normal conditions, Carmichael, 25, would be an odds-on favorite to ride his Suzuki to a sixth straight victory this season. But in case you haven't been outside lately, these have not been normal San Diego conditions.
Yesterday's scheduled practice was canceled because of the rain.
Carmichael is not considered the tour's best rider on wet and slick tracks. The nod there goes to Honda teammates Kevin Windham and Mike LaRocco and Yamaha's David Vuillemin, who scored the second of his two San Diego victories in 2002 on a slick course.
Carmichael's only defeat this season came in the rain-soaked season opener Jan. 8 at Angel Stadium in Anaheim. Windham won that race, followed by LaRocco. Carmichael was third.
Carmichael wasn't the only rider to fall at Anaheim, but the 5-foot-6, 160-pound three-time Supercross series champion struggled to pull his bike out of the muck.
Given Carmichael's recent dominance, rivals might be looking for monsoon conditions for the 20-lap feature.
Not only has Carmichael won the past five races – the longest winning streak ever by a rider on a Suzuki – he has led 97 of the 120 laps contested this season.
Carmichael acknowledges that he has been on a mission this season after missing 2004 following knee surgery.
"I had something to prove and I'm proving it," Carmichael said after his win last week in Indianapolis in the RCA Dome.
After winning three straight Supercross titles from 2001 through 2003, Carmichael had to watch from the sidelines last season as Australian Chad Reed claimed his first championship.
Runner-up Reed trails Carmichael by 32 points. That is the equivalent of more than a full race lead after six of the season's 16 events. Windham is third in the standings and LaRocco – the all-time leader in Supercross starts – is fourth.
Reed is winless in his last eight starts, but he has won the last two Supercrosses at Qualcomm Stadium. Only two riders have scored more than two wins at San Diego. Seven-time series champ Jeremy McGrath of Encinitas won five straight from 1993 through '98 and El Cajon native Rick Johnson was a three-time San Diego winner.
Carmichael's only San Diego win came as a rookie in 2001 and was sandwiched by Vuillemin's two wins.
Qualcomm Stadium is the only Supercross circuit where Carmichael has not scored at least two wins. He finished fourth in 2002 and was third in 2003.
His 37 Supercross wins rank second only to McGrath's 72. But Carmichael, also a five-time champion of the outdoor Nationals Motocross season, is the all-time leader with 113 combined Supercross/motocross wins.
In the 125cc class, Kawasaki's Ivan Tedesco will be looking for his 11th career win, which would tie him for second on the all-time list. McGrath leads with 13.
